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Canada’s housing market has two good years ahead of it yet, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday, with low interest rates and a “moderately” expanding economy keeping price corrections at bay.

The Crown corporation – which insures Canadian mortgages – has had a consistently rosier view of the market than many private sector forecasters.Canadian banks have recently issued reports probing the consequences of cheap money, and trying to predict whether there is a bubble in prices that will eventually pop and cause prices to crash. They are particularly concerned about Vancouver and Toronto, where some have predicted price corrections of up to 10 per cent because of overbuilding in the condo market.

But CMHC said Monday Canadian markets would “remain steady in 2012 and 2013.

“With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist.

Also in the forecast: “Housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to 212,700 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 190,000 units. In 2013, housing starts will be in the range of 168,900 to 219,300 units, with a point forecast of 193,800 units.

Existing home sales will be in the range of 406,000 to 504,500 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 457,300 units. In 2013, MLS sales are expected to move up in the range of 417,600 to 517,400 units, with a point forecast of 468,200 units.

The average MLS price is forecast to be between $330,000 and $410,000 in 2012 and between $335,000 and $430,000 in 2013. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS price is $368,900 for 2012 and $379,000 for 2013. The moderate increases in the average MLS price are consistent with the balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected to continue in 2012 and 2013.”

 source: globe and mail 

OTTAWA—The Bank of Montreal says Canada’s somewhat pricey housing market is likely to cool, not crash.

The bank’s economists say the only real trouble spot is Vancouver, where there are plenty of vacant high-priced condos going begging.

The report suggests that alarms about Canada’s housing market by international observers, from the International Monetary Fund to The Economist magazine, are exaggerated or simplistic.

Even Toronto’s hot condo market — one of the subjects of many of the warnings — is more likely to cool rather than collapse, the economists say.

A comparison of house prices to household incomes shows an increase from a decade ago, but not an excessive one, the report points out.

Nor are most Canadians close to an American-style debt wall that preceded the subprime crash in 2007.

Nevertheless, the BMO economists say house values are somewhat pricey and expect sales, starts and prices to flatten out this year.

source:moneyville.ca

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Canada’s realtors have a new way to test the housing sector and, based on the first set of results, the market is showing signs of heating up again after posting its first price increase in two months.

The MLS home price index was up 5.2% in January from a year ago, and 0.27% from a month earlier, based on the five markets surveyed. For now, only Calgary, the Fraser Valley in British Columbia, Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto are surveyed, but that covers about 44% of the entire Canadian real estate market.

“The introduction of the [index] will provide clients and realtors a more timely and accurate gauge of home values in a number of major markets across the country,” said Gary Morse, president of Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents 100 boards across the country.

CREA says the new index uses a “sophisticated statistical model” that takes into account such quantitative measures as the number of rooms in a home and such qualitative measures as whether or not it has a finished basement.

The model also considers location, measuring proximity to schools and hospitals, even golf courses, when comparing prices.

The index will divide the information into different categories that include single-family homes — split into one-storey and two-storey homes, — townhouse or row units, and apartments.

The Ottawa-based group will continue to release its traditional monthly average price data, calculated by taking total value of housing sold divided by number of sales.

Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said the index more accurately measures the housing market. “Changes in average price and median home prices are open to misinterpretation, since they can swing dramatically based on changes in the mix of home sales,” he said.

The five boards involved with CREA started working on the project in 2009, partnering with real estate research firm Altus Group to come up with the index.

It faces competition from the Teranet-National Bank price index but is expected to issue results on a more timely basis. Teranet’s most recent statistics are for November while CREA’s cover January.

However, Teranet’s index represents 11 cities. CREA says it hopes to expand to 16 boards by 2013, which would represent almost 70% of the Canadian housing market.

The first set of results from the MLS index shows the housing market did rebound after a poor finish to 2011. Prices declined 0.20% in December from a month earlier and slid 0.7% in November from October.

Overall, the MLS index shows prices were up from a year ago in all five of the markets surveyed, led by Toronto, where they rose 7.6%. Prices in all housing categories rose, but the strongest showing was for two-storey homes, up 6.7% from a year ago.

“While home prices remain up compared to one year ago, price growth from one month to the next has been slowing, causing year-over-year gains to shrink, and prices are generally expected to continue to stabilize this year,” said Mr. Morse. 

Source: National Post 

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Canada will likely avoid a crash or serious correction in its “somewhat pricey” housing market, with the possible exception of Vancouver, says a new paper from Bank of Montreal.

The analysis by BMO economists suggests alarms about Canada's housing market by international observers, from the International Monetary Fund to The Economist magazine, are exaggerated or simplistic.

“The main takeaway is that the national housing market appears somewhat pricey, but is far removed from a bubble,” said economists Sherry Cooper and Sal Guatieri in the report released Monday.

“In our view, the [market] is more like a balloon than a bubble. While bubbles always burst, a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a ‘pin'.”

Even Toronto's hot condo market – one of the subjects of many of the warnings – is more likely to cool rather than collapse, BMO said, noting that a sharp decline in construction for rental units is stimulating demand for condos.

The report estimates that half of new condos in the Toronto area are purchased by investors, and about 22 per cent are rented.

The one exception to the sanguine view appears to be Vancouver and parts of British Columbia, where home prices and demand from an influx of non-resident Chinese investment is elevating prices and construction. Home prices in Vancouver have climbed 159 per cent over the past 10 years, more than 50 per cent higher than the national average.

“Bottom line is, we expect the Canadian housing market to cool down rather than bust over the next couple of years, with the possible exception of Vancouver and parts of B.C. which will likely experience further correction,” Mr. Guatieri said in an interview.

By cooling, he predicted that prices, sales and startups will essentially be flat this year and likely next.

Housing has become an area of concern for policy makers over the past few years as Canadians continued to dip into the mortgage market to take advantage of historically low interest rates. As a consequence, household debt to disposable income has shot to more than 153 per cent, the highest ever and close to the levels reached in the United States before the subprime crash.

Earlier in the month, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he was prepared to intervene for the fourth time in six years if there is no let-up in borrowing.

The BMO economists say the government and Bank of Montreal are correct to worry about a continuation of the trend, but that is not likely. In fact, except for a few hot spots, that cooling trend has already begun with prices rising only 0.9 per cent last year. Home starts have also dipped well south of the over 200,000 level.

Nor is it likely that Canada will fall into another recession, or that interest rates would rise so quickly that a significant number of households would be unable to meet mortgage payments.

Canadian households are not as vulnerable as their American counterparts, the economists say.

Canadian home ownership equity is 67 per cent in Canada, compared with 39 per cent in the U.S., and even debt-to-income ratios are far better in Canada when the cost of health care that U.S. households must pay is factored in.

The report argues that many of the measures used by alarmists to suggest housing is due for a severe correction are exaggerated or simplistic.

On the important measures that gauge affordability, households are on firm ground. House prices to family incomes are elevated from 10 years ago, but not excessively so, at a ratio of 4.9 versus 3.2 a decade ago.

The exception again is Vancouver at 10, nearly double what it was a decade ago. Also elevated is Toronto at 6.7 versus 4.3.

“Let's assume the worst case scenario and house prices fall by 10 per cent, would that affect anything?” Mr. Guatieri asked. “There has been such an increase in house values, that I don't think it would pose a serious problem for Canadians or the economy.”

Mr. Guatieri said the situation would become a problem if home prices and household debt continued to outstrip income growth, but trends on both fronts are moderating.

Source: Globe and Mail 

Trump International Hotel & Tower Toronto, Canada’s tallest residential building, opens Tuesday, capping a seven-year effort to bring the brand of billionaire Donald Trump to the country’s largest city.

The $500-million Trump tower is the first of three luxury hotel-condominium projects opening this year in Toronto, after The Ritz-Carlton opened last year. The Four Seasons Hotel and Private Residences and the 66-storey Shangri-La Toronto are also set to open this year.

Toronto’s rise of luxury hotel residences follows a record year for tourism, with more than 9 million hotel-room nights sold in 2011, according to Tourism Toronto. The industry association said the availability of luxury hotel options attracts “high-value visitors” to the city.

About 60% of the 118 residential units in the 65-storey tower have been sold, with the remaining condos priced from $2.3-million to $6.3-million, according to Talon International Development Inc., the owner and developer.

The building also has hotel suites, owned by investors who can earn revenue when used by a hotel guest. About 85% of the 261 hotel rooms have been sold, with the rest priced from $967,000.

“In this market, and at the prices I know those units have commanded, that’s a pretty healthy ratio,” John Andrew, a real-estate professor at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said in a telephone interview.

An international investor bought a penthouse at Toronto’s Four Seasons for $28-million, which the developer said last year was the most expensive condo ever sold in Canada.

Luxury Tower

Talon, based in Toronto, bought the property at Bay and Adelaide streets in the financial district in 2004 and proposed a luxury tower with the Trump name. The Trump Hotel Collection has a management agreement to operate the hotel, which was originally slated to open in 2009. Design changes delayed the project, Talon said.

The closely held developer arranged $310-million in construction financing from Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, an Austrian bank, in 2007 and started construction with $250 million in sales.

Buyers have come from around the world, with Canadians representing a “considerable portion,” Talon Chief Executive Officer Val Levitan said in an e-mail. That portion is growing as the project nears completion, he said.

“Early on, the bulk of purchasers were investors,” Levitan said. “Over the past couple of years that mix has shifted much more towards people who are looking to use their suites as their primary home, a downtown pied-a-terre or even as a corporate suite.”

Taking Gamble

Investors of Toronto’s luxury units are taking a gamble on a limited market of wealthy visitors and dwindling prospects as companies cut back on corporate travel, according to Andrew, director of the Queen’s Real Estate Roundtable.

“I’m very skeptical that there is sufficient market to support all of these hotels,” Andrew said in an interview. “There are not enough wealthy individuals running around that are going to keep those hotels in business.”

Toronto will have about 1,000 luxury rooms after the Four Seasons and Shangri-La open, estimates Trump’s general manager Mickael Damelincourt.

“Compared to what Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, Paris, London has to offer in terms of luxury hotels, it’s nothing,” Damelincourt said. “There is definitely a demand.”

Trump Hotel Collection also oversees five U.S. hotels including two in New York and one in Chicago, and a hotel in Panama.

Nobody Can Compete

If there is rivalry brewing among Toronto’s luxury hotels, the billionaire behind the brand name said he isn’t worried.

“Toronto is a vibrant, great city. We have a great product,” Donald Trump told reporters Jan. 24 at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles. “Nobody will be able to compete with us.”

The Trump building is in the heart of Toronto’s financial district, rising 277 metres among towers bearing the logos of Canada’s largest banks including Bank of Montreal and Bank of Nova Scotia.

The Trump hotel features a two-level spa with pool, a 12,000-square-foot ballroom and 31st-floor dining at Stock Restaurant Bar & Lounge. Rooms start at $395 a night and go as high as $20,000 for the 4,000-square-foot presidential suite.

‘Elevate Toronto’

“Collectively, these luxury properties help elevate Toronto to a level of being one of the elite cities in the world,” Alex Shnaider, chairman of Talon, said in an e-mail. “It will benefit the city as a whole — making a great city even better.”

The hotel-condo idea remains “an unproven concept” for Canada, with uncertain investment returns, said Yossi Kaplan, a Toronto realtor with Your Choice Realty whose clients own units in the building. Trump’s name resonates more with foreign investors than Canadians, he said, and most calls he gets on the project are from outside the country or recent immigrants.

Trump’s name was a draw for Toronto’s John Hutson, who bought a 17th-floor hotel suite as an investment and a 48th- floor two-bedroom condo to live in.

“You associate Trump with special projects that have wow factors,” said Hutson, 50, a tax partner at Deloitte & Touche LLP whose office is a five-minute walk away. “The key is buying the best. And from a quality and location perspective, for my money, it’s Trump.”

Bloomberg.com

Toronto “is starting to stand out as the hottest real estate market right now,” following the release of December sales figures, BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Robert Kavcic says.

However, that may be somewhat of a booby prize, as the Canadian market, following a 13-year boom, is cooling overall – and Toronto is expected to follow suit, he added.

The Toronto Real Estate Board said Thursday that Greater Toronto real estate agents reported 4,718 sales in December, up 10.1 per cent from the same period in 2010. The average selling price was $451,436, up 4 per cent year over year.

That capped off the second-best year on record under the board’s current boundaries, dating to 1994. “Low borrowing costs kept buyers confident in their ability to comfortably cover their mortgage payments along with other major housing costs,” board president Richard Silver said in a release. The board said buyers were held back by a shortage of listings, while tight market conditions kept upward pressure on selling prices.

It’s a different story in Vancouver, where the number of residential sales in December tumbled by 12.7 per cent over the same period a year earlier, according to figures released this week by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Sales for 2011 were 5.9 per cent above 2010 levels but 9.2 per cent below 2009. The overall residential benchmark price, as measured by the MLSLink Housing Price Index, has also dropped by 1.5 per cent since June.

Earlier this week, TD senior economist Jacques Marcil predicted both B.C. and Ontario could face challenging housing markets over the next two years.

Mr. Kavcic said the ratio of sales to new listings in Toronto and throughout Ontario “is pretty much in line with historical norms,” but noted that the number of starts for new multiple-unit dwellings (largely condos) in Ontario over the past 12 months had outpaced single family homes by a factor of 1.5 to 1, up from a ratio of close to 1 to 1 over the past decade and “pretty well the largest discrepancy we’ve seen in a long time.”

As a result, “to the extent where there is downward pressure on prices, the condo market is more at risk” in Toronto, he said.

Merrill Lynch warned last month that housing prices could correct by as much as 10 per cent in the next two years in Canada because of weakness in the economy, expressing particular concern about Toronto’s condo market. The Bank of Canada also warned the Toronto market looks overbuilt and could see prices drop.

source: globe and mail